Jacob Misiorowski’s Miss Distance Surge Points to a Cy Young-Caliber Second Half

Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers is having a season that goes far beyond his All-Star selection in 2025. Through the first half of 2026, the right-hander leads Major League Baseball in strikeout rate (39%) and whiff rate (38%), and he has accumulated 173 strikeouts—the most in the majors. But a deeper look at new swing-timing and miss-distance data from Baseball Savant reveals a more precise story: Misiorowski is not only missing more bats, he is missing them by a wider margin, particularly with his breaking pitches.

The improvement marks a clear step forward from his 2025 All-Star campaign, when he was still a raw, triple-digit-throwing phenom. Now, at 24, Misiorowski is on a trajectory that could make him a Cy Young Award contender if his second half mirrors his first.

Por que importa

Key facts

How the fastball sets up the breaking ball
Misiorowski’s four-seam fastball, which now touches 105 mph, is the foundation of his dominance. He throws it 63% of the time—the highest rate of any single fastball type among MLB starters. While the fastball itself generates a 42% whiff rate, its average miss distance (1.3 inches in 2026) is nearly identical to last season (1.2 inches). Hitters simply do not miss fastballs by much, even at triple-digit velocity.

The real effect comes from how the fastball disrupts hitters’ timing. Because batters must sell out to catch up to the heater, they become vulnerable to Misiorowski’s secondary pitches. The whiff rate on his slider and curveball has risen sharply, and the miss distance on those pitches has increased significantly. In 2025, hitters were able to get closer to those breaking balls; in 2026, they are flailing at them by a much wider gap.

Contexto

Breaking-ball whiffs and flawed swings
The improvement is most visible in the “flawed swing” rate—swings where the bat is not on plane with the pitch, the timing is off, and the ball is not centered on the barrel. Against Misiorowski’s slider, cutter, and curveball, that rate has more than doubled year over year.

Specific data points from Baseball Savant show:
– Hitters swing over the top of his slider and curveball 31% of the time, up from 21% in 2025.
– They swing off the end of the barrel 31% of the time, up from 26%.
– They swing too early against breaking pitches 22% of the time, up from 16%.

These mis-timed swings are a direct consequence of hitters having to gear up for a 100.5 mph fastball that arrives on two of every three pitches. When the breaking ball comes, they are already out of position.

Splitting the cutter and slider
Misiorowski has also refined his repertoire this season. He now throws a harder cutter at 96.0 mph, separate from his slower slider at 92.2 mph. That cutter is generating a healthy miss distance of 3.2 inches, further expanding the difficulty for hitters trying to cover multiple pitch types.

Results against secondary pitches
The empty swings are translating into poor results for batters. Batting average and slugging percentage against Misiorowski’s secondary pitches have dropped sharply in 2026. When hitters do make contact, it is often weak and poorly directed.

What this means for the Brewers and the Cy Young race
For Milwaukee, Misiorowski’s evolution from a high-ceiling talent into a polished ace is a development that could define their postseason hopes. The Brewers are in a tight NL Central race, and having a pitcher who can dominate starts with a 39% strikeout rate is a significant advantage.

In the broader Cy Young conversation, Misiorowski’s combination of elite velocity, high strikeout totals, and now proven ability to generate bigger misses on secondary pitches makes him a strong candidate. If he maintains his first-half performance through August and September, he will not just be an All-Star—he will be the favorite for the award.

Source: MLB Official News RSS — https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-misiorowski-miss-distance-increase-2026