Yankees vs. Cubs prediction: SportsLine model backs Over 9 at Wrigley Field on Friday

The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs open a weekend interleague series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, and the SportsLine projection model sees enough offense to push the total over the posted number.

First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Chicago enters as a -157 money-line favorite, with New York at +136. The over/under is set at 9 runs, and the run line lists the Cubs at -1.5 (+130).

The Yankees (61-48) are second in the American League East and arrive in Chicago after a 2-1 loss in 11 innings to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. The Cubs (62-47), second in the National League Central, beat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 in 10 innings the same night. New York is 35-25 on the road; Chicago is 30-22 at home.

SportsLine’s model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, is leaning Over 9 combined runs and projects a total of 9.3.

Friday’s matchup at a glance

Why the model leans Over 9

The Over has cashed in three of the Yankees’ past five games and in six of the Cubs’ past 10. The model’s projection of 9.3 combined runs sits just above the posted total of 9, a narrow gap that reflects its view that both lineups are capable of scoring against the projected starters.

SportsLine says the model enters Week 19 of the MLB season on a 39-23 run on all top-rated MLB picks. The model also produced strong results on home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit, per the outlet. That track record is relevant because the model has also released total-bases projections for hitters on both sides of this game.

Starting pitching trends behind the total

The over/under results for the two likely starters help explain the model’s lean. The Over is 12-8 in games started this season by Yankees right-hander Will Warren. For the Cubs, the Over is 11-9-1 across 21 starts by left-hander Shota Imanaga.

Those splits are modestly above .500, meaning games featuring these pitchers have cleared the total a bit more often than not. That pattern aligns with the model’s Over call for Friday.

Player props to watch

In addition to the total, the model released player-level projections for the game. Yankees hitters Ben Rice and Trent Grisham are projected for 1.5 or more total bases, and Cubs hitters Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki carry the same projection.

Total-bases props have become a popular betting market, and the model’s 2025 performance on home run props gives bettors a reason to check those matchups before locking in wagers, though past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

What remains unclear

The SportsLine write-up does not disclose the model’s money-line pick. It states that “one side of the money line has all the value” but directs readers to its site for the actual selection. Bettors who want that specific pick will need to visit SportsLine directly.

The source also does not explicitly confirm Friday’s starting pitchers, though the over/under splits reference Will Warren for New York and Shota Imanaga for Chicago. Lineups, weather and late roster moves at Wrigley Field can shift odds before first pitch, so bettors should check the latest numbers and confirm the starters before placing wagers.

Source: CBS Sports, “Yankees vs. Cubs prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for Friday, July 31, by proven model,” July 31, 2026, https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/yankees-cubs-prediction-odds-line-start-time-2026-mlb-picks-for-friday-july-31/