Islanders’ Goaltending Injury Tightens the Eastern Conference Wild Card Race

The New York Islanders enter the final weeks of the NHL regular season clinging to a playoff spot, but their grip on the Eastern Conference’s second wild card has loosened after a series of goaltending injuries. Ilya Sorokin, the team’s starter, has been out since March 10 with a lower-body injury, and backup Semyon Varlamov briefly left a game on March 20 with an apparent leg issue before returning. The uncertainty in net comes at a time when the Islanders are fighting off the Detroit Red Wings, Washington Capitals, and Philadelphia Flyers for the last two postseason berths.

This column examines why the Islanders’ goaltending situation matters for the wild card race, what the official injury reports and standings show, how different interpretations of the schedule and roster depth play out, and what key factors could change the outcome over the next two weeks.

Why the Islanders’ goaltending depth matters

The Islanders have long relied on a defensive system that funnels shots to the outside and trusts their goaltenders to control rebounds. That system works only when the netminder is at or near elite level. Sorokin, who posted a .929 save percentage in 2022-23 and a .910 mark this season, is the team’s anchor. Without him, the Islanders drop to a goaltending tandem of Varlamov (a capable but aging backup) and a third-string option, likely Ken Appleby or a recall from AHL Bridgeport.

The numbers illustrate the drop. In games without Sorokin this season, the Islanders have allowed 3.4 goals per game compared to 2.8 with him. Even a half-goal swing in a tight playoff race can cost two or three points over a ten-game stretch. The Islanders currently hold the second wild card with 78 points, but the Red Wings are only one point back with a game in hand, and the Capitals are two points behind.

What the official sources show

The NHL’s official injury report lists Sorokin as day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but he has missed three consecutive games. The team’s official website has not issued a timeline beyond “week to week,” which is a wide window. Meanwhile, the NHL’s standings page shows the Islanders with a 33-28-12 record, a minus-11 goal differential, and 78 points in 73 games.

The table shows that Detroit and Washington are within striking distance. The Islanders’ regulation wins total (27) is lower than Detroit’s (28), which is the first tiebreaker after regulation wins. If the teams finish tied in points, Detroit would get the spot.

Competing readings: schedule vs. goaltending

One school of thought argues that the Islanders’ remaining schedule is favorable enough to sustain a playoff push even without Sorokin. Of their final nine games, five are against teams currently outside the playoff picture, including the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks, and Montreal Canadiens. The Islanders also have a pair of games against the Flyers, who are directly behind them. If Varlamov can hold the fort against weaker opponents, the Islanders might not need Sorokin until the postseason.

The counterargument is that the Islanders have struggled against low-scoring teams all year, losing to the Blue Jackets twice and the Blackhawks once. Their defensive structure has broken down in third periods, and Varlamov’s stamina becomes a concern if he starts five of the next six games. The Red Wings, meanwhile, have a slightly tougher schedule but have won four of their last five with a .915 save percentage from Alex Lyon.

What could change next

The most important factor is Sorokin’s recovery timeline. If he returns within the next week, the Islanders can likely hold off Detroit and Washington. If he is out for the season, the Islanders will need Varlamov to play at a level he has not sustained since 2020. A second factor is the performance of the teams above the wild card line. The Tampa Bay Lightning, currently holding the first wild card, could fall into the race if their goaltending issues continue. That would give the Islanders a buffer.

The Islanders also have a three-game road trip to Western Canada starting March 25, facing the Canucks, Oilers, and Flames. Those are tough opponents, but the Oilers and Flames are also battling for positioning. If the Islanders can steal two points from that trip, they gain breathing room.

What remains unclear

Sorokin’s exact injury is not publicly known. The “lower-body” label is vague, and the team has not provided an MRI result or a specific diagnosis. Without that information, it is impossible to project a return date. The Islanders’ front office has also not made a corresponding transaction, suggesting they expect Sorokin back soon. However, if the injury is more serious than reported, the team may need to recall a goaltender or explore a trade for a veteran netminder on waivers.

Another unknown is how the Red Wings and Capitals handle their own injury situations. Detroit is missing center Dylan Larkin for at least two weeks with a muscle strain, and Washington is without defenseman John Carlson for personal reasons. Those absences could offset the Islanders’ goaltending loss.

Practical next checks for fans

For fans tracking the race, watch the NHL’s daily injury report for Sorokin’s status. Also monitor the Islanders’ goal differential in the next two games: if they allow more than three goals per game, the goaltending issue is likely the primary culprit. The Islanders’ next game against the Red Wings on March 28 is a potential four-point swing. A regulation win there would put the Islanders at least four points clear of Detroit with a game in hand.

The wild card race is far from settled, but the Islanders’ goaltending health is the single biggest variable. Until Sorokin returns, every game is a test of depth and resilience.