Five MLB Teams From 2025 Postseason Face Uphill Battle to Return in 2026

TITLE: Five MLB Teams From 2025 Postseason Face Uphill Battle to Return in 2026
SLUG: mlb-2025-playoff-teams-2026-return-battle
EXCERPT: Several teams that made the 2025 MLB playoffs are struggling to replicate their success this season, facing significant challenges in their quest for a postseason berth.
CATEGORY: News
TAGS: MLB, Baseball, 2026 Season, Playoffs, Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Reds
SEO_TITLE: 2026 MLB Playoff Race: Which 2025 Teams Are In Danger?
SEO_DESCRIPTION: A look at five MLB teams that reached the 2025 postseason but are currently on the outside of the playoff picture in 2026, and their chances of a comeback.
MEDIA_QUERY: MLB baseball game action
IMAGE_ALT: A baseball player swings at a pitch during an MLB game.

The 2026 Major League Baseball season is approaching the All-Star break, and for several teams that celebrated a postseason appearance in 2025, the path back to October looks considerably more challenging. While seven teams from last year’s playoffs are in strong positions to return, five others are facing uphill battles.

FanGraphs playoff odds entering play on July 9, 2026, show that while the Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Mariners, Cubs, and Guardians are all well-positioned, a quintet of former playoff contenders are currently on the outside looking in. This article examines these struggling teams, their current predicament, and the potential paths they have to turn their seasons around.

Tigers’ Uphill Climb

The Detroit Tigers, with 28.5% playoff odds, find themselves eight games under .500 and in fourth place in the AL Central. Despite a strong start to June, with a 20-12 record that is the best in the American League over that span, the team endured a difficult May. The additions of Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander were meant to elevate the Tigers this season, but their performance has not met expectations.

However, the Tigers do possess a positive run differential, a rarity in their division, and have seen promising play from young hitters like Riley Greene and Kevin McGonigle. Keeping ace Tarik Skubal in the fold is crucial, though tempting trade offers are expected. The primary concern remains the potential temptation to trade Skubal, which would boost the long-term outlook but significantly hinder their current playoff aspirations.

Blue Jays’ Offensive Woes

With 24.4% playoff odds, the Toronto Blue Jays are grappling with the fear of not returning to the postseason after their 2025 World Series appearance. The team made aggressive moves in the offseason, but currently sits five games under .500. The core issue for the Blue Jays appears to be a drastic decline in offensive production.

Last season, Toronto’s offense ranked fourth in the majors in runs per game. This year, a similar lineup ranks a disappointing 26th. The struggles of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., in particular, with only five home runs, are a major concern. Rediscovering the potent offense of 2025, especially Guerrero’s power, is seen as the key to a turnaround. A significant reason for concern is the team’s fourth-worst run differential in the AL, suggesting they may have overperformed their underlying metrics so far.

Red Sox Battling Injuries and Bad Luck

The Boston Red Sox, currently holding 23.1% playoff odds, have experienced a season marred by injuries, a slumping lineup, shaky defense, and unfortunate luck. Despite these challenges, the team has shown signs of life, winning 10 of their last 12 games to move within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot.

The Red Sox boast a solid starting rotation, ranking in the top 10 in MLB in ERA, with Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez leading the charge. Promising rookie performances from Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett, along with Patrick Sandoval’s impending debut, provide optimism. The struggles of division rivals like the Blue Jays and Orioles have also opened a window for Boston. However, relentless injury concerns, including setbacks for Roman Anthony and Connelly Early, and even a minor issue for Suarez, present a significant hurdle. The question looms: are trades on the horizon?

Padres’ Mid-Season Slump

After briefly leading the NL West in mid-May, the San Diego Padres have seen their season unravel, with a 17-28 record since May 19. Their playoff odds now stand at a mere 11.8%. What was once a promising season now has the Padres in danger of missing the postseason entirely.

The Padres’ path forward hinges on their veteran leadership. Fernando Tatis Jr. has shown signs of improvement after a slow start, but San Diego desperately needs more production from Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth. The expectation is that these established stars will eventually revert to their previous form. A systemic issue is the team’s lack of close games, which limits opportunities for closer Mason Miller. If the trend continues, the club might even consider trading their star closer.

Reds’ Playoff Hopes Diminishing

The Cincinnati Reds, with the lowest playoff odds at 1.7%, saw their promising start to the season falter dramatically. After a strong 20-11 record by April 30, the team fell into an eight-game losing streak, derailing their momentum. What began as a season of building on their 2025 surprise playoff appearance has devolved into a struggle to regain traction. The Reds’ ability to capitalize on their early success and translate it into sustained performance has been a critical challenge.

Key facts
| Team | 2025 Playoff Status | 2026 Playoff Odds | Key Concern | Path to Turnaround |
|————-|———————|——————-|——————————————–|—————————————–|
| Tigers | Postseason | 28.5% | Tarik Skubal trade speculation | Strong recent AL record, young hitters |
| Blue Jays | Postseason | 24.4% | Offensive slump, low run differential | Rediscovering 2025 offense, Guerrero Jr. |
| Red Sox | Postseason | 23.1% | Unrelenting injuries, lineup depth issues | Solid pitching staff, division rivals |
| Padres | Postseason | 11.8% | Veteran underperformance, systemic issues | Production from Tatis Jr., Machado, etc. |
| Reds | Postseason | 1.7% | Sustained offensive and pitching struggles | TBD |

For fans of these teams, the next few weeks leading up to the trade deadline and the second half of the season will be crucial. Whether these clubs can overcome their current deficits and mount a charge towards the 2026 playoffs remains to be seen, but the challenges are significant.

Source: MLB Official News RSS – https://www.mlb.com/news/2026-mlb-playoff-chances-for-2025-playoff-teams

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