Home Run Bets Highlighted for Basallo and Rice as MLB Season Continues

The pursuit of profitable home run bets in Major League Baseball continues, with a particular focus on two emerging talents, Samuel Basallo and Ben Rice, for the slate of games on July 3, 2026. While the recent track record for home run bet suggestions has been challenging, with an eight-game losing streak bringing the season’s record to 13-50, the potential for long-shot props to yield significant returns remains. The current season’s profits for home run props stand at $527 for those who have bet $100 on each suggested prop.

Basallo’s Ideal Matchup

Samuel Basallo presents a compelling case for a home run bet, benefiting from favorable matchup and park factors. The 21-year-old catcher has shown considerable power in his second stint in the majors, hitting 12 home runs in 267 plate appearances this season. Of his home runs, 11 have come against right-handed pitching, which is precisely the type of pitcher he is set to face.

Basallo’s batted-ball data supports his power potential. Among qualified hitters, he ranks highly in several key metrics, including barrels per plate appearance rate, barrels per batted-ball event rate, and hard-hit rate. His exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, as well as his maximum exit velocity, are also strong indicators of his ability to drive the ball.

His matchup against Brady Singer, whose 2.21 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) is the highest among projected starting pitchers for the night, further enhances Basallo’s prospects. Singer has a history of surrendering home runs, particularly to left-handed batters and at home. Coupled with Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly environment for home runs, Basallo is positioned to capitalize.

Rice’s Power Potential

Ben Rice also emerges as a strong candidate for a home run bet, building on a breakout sophomore season. After hitting 26 homers in 2025, Rice has already amassed 23 home runs in 347 plate appearances this year. The left-handed hitter has demonstrated particular effectiveness against right-handed pitching, with a significant portion of his home runs coming in such matchups, and especially at home.

Rice’s batted-ball data is equally impressive. He ranks among the top qualified hitters in barrels per plate appearance rate, barrels per batted-ball event rate, hard-hit rate, and fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity. His launch angle and fly-ball rate also contribute to his power output.

The matchup against rookie Mike Paredes, who has allowed a notable HR/9 rate, presents an opportunity for Rice. Paredes’s tendency to allow fly balls against left-handed batters, combined with the homer-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium, creates a conducive environment for Rice to hit a home run. While his home run line is considered chalky across sportsbooks, his underlying metrics suggest a strong likelihood of success.

Key Facts

The identification of Basallo and Rice as potential home run threats underscores the ongoing analysis of player performance, park influences, and pitching matchups within Major League Baseball. Despite a recent downturn in prediction accuracy, the underlying data suggests that these two hitters possess the power and situational advantages to potentially break the streak and provide profitable outcomes for bettors.

Source: Yahoo Sports – MLB Best Home Run Bets For July 3, 2026—Basallo And Rice (https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/mlb-best-home-run-bets-065119724.html)