Home Run Prop Bets: Jensen and Goldschmidt Eyeing Long Balls on June 17

As the Major League Baseball season progresses, the strategic pursuit of home run prop bets continues to present opportunities for shrewd bettors. On June 17, 2026, Yahoo Sports has identified two players with particularly appealing matchups for hitting a home run: rising slugger Carter Jensen and veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

Current Performance of Home Run Bets

The landscape of home run betting, while challenging, has shown a positive trend for those who have consistently followed suggested plays. According to Yahoo Sports, the season’s home run bets are currently at an 11-42 record, with an additional three instances where the player did not start. Despite this seemingly low win rate, the inherent difficulty and long odds associated with these bets mean that even a few successful hits can lead to significant profits. For those who have wagered $100 on every suggested home run bet this year, the return is reported to be a profitable $504. This underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of home run props.

Carter Jensen’s Promising Matchup

Among the standout selections for June 17 is Carter Jensen. The young hitter, despite a 28.8% strikeout rate this season, possesses considerable power. Jensen has already recorded eight home runs in 2026, backed by a 20.0-degree launch angle, a 49.0% fly-ball rate, and a 10.5% home run per fly-ball rate. His 40.0% pull rate indicates a tendency to drive the ball with authority. Jensen’s batted-ball profile, while not perfect, features above-average metrics, including a maximum exit velocity of 113.7 mph, ranking him tied for 33rd among 255 qualified hitters. His 20.0-degree launch angle is also among the steepest, at 24th.

Jensen’s matchup against Zack Littell of the Washington Nationals is particularly favorable. Littell has struggled with allowing home runs, posting the second-highest mark among probable starters with 2.18 home runs allowed per nine innings. Littell has surrendered at least one home run in eight of his 14 appearances this year, including multiple homers in five games. Notably, he has allowed 13 of his 21 home runs to left-handed batters. Should Jensen not connect against Littell, the Nationals’ bullpen, which is tied for fourth-highest in home runs allowed per nine innings (1.30), presents another potential avenue for a home run. Furthermore, Nationals Park’s park factor of 105 for homers since 2025 is expected to aid Jensen’s power.

Paul Goldschmidt’s Resurgent Form

Veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is also highlighted for his home run potential. Goldschmidt hit a home run in his previous game, bringing his season total to 10 in 46 games. At 38 years old, he is experiencing a resurgent season, boasting his highest barrel rate (11.1%) since 2023 and his steepest launch angle (16.1 degrees) since 2021. His batted-ball profile is robust, with strong metrics in barrels per plate appearance rate, barrels per batted-ball event rate, and exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.

Goldschmidt faces a favorable matchup against left-handed pitcher Anthony Kay of the Chicago White Sox. Kay has allowed 10 home runs this season with a 1.36 HR/9 rate. He has a history of surrendering homers to right-handed batters, with nine of his home runs allowed coming against them this year. The White Sox’s bullpen also ranks ninth in MLB for home runs allowed per nine innings (1.12). Playing at home in what is described as a hitter-friendly environment, with a park factor of 115 for homers, should further enhance Goldschmidt’s chances.

Key Facts

The appeal of these home run prop bets lies in the specific matchups and the players’ recent performance and underlying statistical profiles. For fans of MLB analytics and betting strategies, these selections offer insight into how data can inform predictions, even in a market known for its volatility.

Source: Yahoo Sports, https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/mlb-best-home-run-bets-052627512.html