MLB Home Run Props: Kyle Tucker, Salvador Perez Highlight Friday’s Best Bets

SportsLine handicapper Matt Severance has released his home run prop picks for Friday, July 24, focusing on a pair of compelling matchups: Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker facing Mets left-hander Sean Manaea and Royals catcher Salvador Perez opposing Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. Over the past four MLB seasons, Severance has posted a net profit of $1,681 on home run picks, according to his track record on SportsLine.

This week’s slate is notable for the absence of games in hitter-friendly parks such as Cincinnati, Denver, or Sacramento, and weather conditions are not expected to be especially favorable for home runs nationwide. However, Severance identifies two matchups where historical splits and recent form create opportunities.

Kyle Tucker vs. Sean Manaea

Tucker, the Dodgers’ high-profile offseason addition, has struggled to meet expectations in his first season with the club. The 29-year-old is batting .236 with seven home runs, well below the production Los Angeles anticipated when it signed him to a four-year, $240 million contract. His last homer came on June 27, and he has just two hits in his last 25 at-bats.

Despite Tucker’s slump, Severance points to his career numbers against Manaea. In 22 plate appearances, Tucker has collected eight hits, including four home runs, good for a 1.346 OPS. Manaea, meanwhile, is 2-5 with a 4.74 ERA and has allowed 12 home runs in 81 innings this season, including two in each of his last three starts. The Mets lefty has not faced Tucker in a Dodgers uniform, but the sample from their prior meetings is strong enough to warrant consideration.

Severance also notes that Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts has a career 1.044 OPS against Manaea with three home runs in 36 at-bats, and Tommy Edman is 4-for-5 with two homers in limited opportunities. The Dodgers and Mets play at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field, with first-pitch temperatures expected in the mid-70s and light winds.

Salvador Perez vs. Tarik Skubal

In Detroit, a marquee pitching matchup features Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal and Royals catcher Salvador Perez. Skubal, who may be making his final start for Detroit ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, has been sharp in his last four outings, allowing only four earned runs in 23 innings. He has surrendered just 10 home runs all season.

Perez, however, has enjoyed consistent success against Skubal. The 36-year-old catcher has four home runs and a .282 average in 39 career at-bats against the lefty, tying him with Paul Goldschmidt for the most homers by any hitter against Skubal. Perez is also chasing history: his 317 career home runs are tied with George Brett for the Royals’ franchise record. He hit his 317th on Wednesday, and a solo shot Friday would give him sole possession of the club mark. Only two other active players — Mike Trout (Angels) and Manny Machado (Padres) — own their team’s all-time home run record.

Perez has homered in three of his last six games, and his power output is slightly down this season (14 home runs), but he remains one of the top power-hitting catchers in the game. The game begins at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park.

Key facts

Trade deadline context

Severance’s analysis also touches on the broader trade deadline landscape. The Tigers are considering whether to sell or hold, with Skubal’s strong recent form potentially increasing his value. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are looking for right-handed power bats on the market, which could influence how they deploy Tucker in the lineup. The trade deadline is Aug. 3.

Severance has been active in the home run prop space this season, hitting on a player in his weekly picks three of the past four Fridays. Last week, he recommended Nationals outfielder James Wood and Rockies infielder Willi Castro; Castro homered at +450. The recommendations are framed as “Over 1.5 total bases” plays, which offer a broader margin of success.

For fans following the picks

Home run prop betting requires careful evaluation of pitcher splits, ballpark factors, weather, and recent form. Friday’s slate lacks the traditional power parks, but the historical splits for Tucker and Perez against their respective pitchers provide a data-driven rationale. Fans should check lineups closer to first pitch, as any late scratches or weather shifts could alter the outlook.

Source: CBS Sports — “Free MLB home run picks July 24: Dodgers’ Kyle Tucker among expert’s best bets for Friday” (https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/free-mlb-home-run-picks-july-24-dodgers-kyle-tucker-among-experts-best-bets-for-friday/)