MLB Mid-Season Predictions: Ohtani’s Cy Young Chase, Braves’ Reign, and Rising Stars Take Center Stage

The 2026 Major League Baseball season has already provided a compelling narrative, marked by unexpected performances from teams like the New York Mets, who have fallen short of expectations, and the Tampa Bay Rays, who have significantly surpassed them. As the league approaches its halfway point, a panel of The Athletic's baseball writers has shared their predictions for the next two months, offering insights into potential individual achievements and the evolving trajectories of various teams.

Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani Eyes Cy Young Award

The Los Angeles Dodgers, a consistent force in recent years, are once again leading the NL West. A significant storyline this season revolves around Shohei Ohtani's dual-threat capabilities. While Ohtani currently boasts an ERA below 1.00, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is notably higher, nearly two runs above his earned run average. Baseball writer Grant Brisbee predicts that Ohtani's ERA will likely exceed 2.00 in the coming months. Brisbee suggests that while Ohtani's exceptional talent is undeniable, the current statistical anomaly might be influenced by external factors. The prediction also acknowledges Ohtani's presumed pursuit of the Cy Young Award, a goal Brisbee frames with a degree of curiosity regarding the underlying motivations.

Braves Positioned for Continued Dominance

The Atlanta Braves have established themselves as a premier team in baseball, leading the league in wins and holding the second-best run differential. Chad Jennings of The Athletic contends that this success is not a temporary surge but a sustainable performance that will carry through the next two months. He highlights that key players, including Ronald Acuña Jr., have yet to reach their peak performance levels for the season. Furthermore, the Braves' pitching depth has proven instrumental in preventing extended losing streaks, with the team having not lost more than three consecutive games and only experiencing back-to-back losses on three occasions. Jennings anticipates a continuation of this dominant form from the Braves, reinforcing their status as leading contenders.

Rays' Unconventional Success Story

The Tampa Bay Rays continue to defy pre-season projections, achieving the best record in the American League despite expectations of a more moderate performance. Jennings attributes this success to the Rays' consistent ability to develop talent from their minor league system. He points to Yandy Díaz's potential to contend for another batting title and the emergence of Junior Caminero as a future star. The team's pitching staff remains a critical component of their strategy, with Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen healthy and effective. A notable prediction is that veteran pitcher Nick Martinez, who is experiencing a career resurgence with the second-lowest ERA in the majors, is poised to make his first All-Star team.

Yankees Building Momentum for Second Half

While not currently at the top of their division, the New York Yankees are predicted to gain significant ground and pull away from the rest of the American League in the upcoming months. Jennings attributes this optimistic outlook to a robust pitching staff, featuring early Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, the recent returns of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón from the injured list, and the consistent performances of Ryan Weathers and Will Warren. The offensive lineup, anchored by Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, and Cody Bellinger, is also a significant factor. The Yankees' farm system possesses the assets to potentially make impactful trades at the deadline, further bolstering their chances. The possibility of a highly anticipated showdown between the Yankees and the Dodgers after the All-Star break is also on the horizon, potentially pitting two of baseball's best teams against each other.

Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski and Potential Strikeout Record

Levi Weaver of The Athletic focuses on Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, predicting his potential inclusion as a starter for the NL All-Star team. Misiorowski's exceptional strikeout numbers, leading the league with an impressive 14.06 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), make this a plausible prediction. Weaver further speculates that Misiorowski could establish a new first-half strikeout record, potentially challenging Jacob deGrom's mark of 14.28 K/9 set in 2021. Even if he does not earn the starting nod for the All-Star Game, his first-half performance has already been historically significant.

Cubs' Offensive Struggles and Potential Turnarounds

Weaver also addresses the offensive challenges faced by the Chicago Cubs, noting that several of their projected starting hitters have posted on-base plus slugging (OPS) marks below .700. He anticipates that two of these three players will see an offensive resurgence by the All-Star break, while one may continue to struggle, raising concerns for the team's overall performance. The identity of the player who might lag behind remains uncertain at this point.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Aims to Reignite Power

The prediction for San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is straightforward: he is expected to hit a home run. This prediction comes after a period where Tatis Jr. has experienced a home run drought. The context suggests a desire for him to rediscover his power-hitting capabilities.

Key Predictions Summary

• Shohei Ohtani: ERA climbs over 2.00 | Grant Brisbee
• Atlanta Braves: Continued dominance | Chad Jennings
• Nick Martinez: Makes first All-Star team | Chad Jennings
• New York Yankees: Pulling away from AL pack | Chad Jennings
• Jacob Misiorowski: NL All-Star starter, potential strikeout record | Levi Weaver
• Cubs' Key Hitters: Two of three to rebound by All-Star break | Levi Weaver
• Fernando Tatis Jr.: Hits a home run | Unspecified

This mid-season analysis offers valuable context for baseball enthusiasts, providing insights into potential shifts in team performance and individual player achievements. It underscores the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of the MLB season, where narratives can rapidly evolve. For readers of NationalSportsWeb, these predictions serve as discussion points and add to the anticipation for the remainder of the 2026 season.

Source: The Athletic – MLB Power Rankings: What's in your team's first-half future? We've got some predictions – https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7300977/2026/05/26/mlb-power-rankings-week-9/