The Western Conference Play-In Race: What the Standings and Injuries Tell Us About the Final Stretch

With fewer than 20 games left in the regular season, the Western Conference play-in race is as congested as any in recent memory. From the 7th seed down to the 11th, every win or loss shifts the probabilities, and the difference between hosting a play-in game and watching from home could come down to a single injury report.

The NBA’s play-in tournament, now in its fourth season, has tightened the margins for teams that finish between 7th and 10th place. In the West this year, the gap between the 6th seed (currently the Phoenix Suns) and the 11th seed (the Houston Rockets) is only 5.5 games. That sounds like a cushion, but the middle of the pack is packed with teams that have very different trajectories. This column examines the standings, the injury situations, and the schedules that will decide who plays in the play-in and who gets a first-round ticket.

Why It Matters

For fans of the Lakers, Warriors, Mavericks, and Kings, the play-in race is not just about the final two spots. The 7th and 8th seeds get two chances to reach the playoffs, while the 9th and 10th must win two consecutive games to advance. That distinction is huge. A team that finishes 7th has a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs historically, while a 10th-place team has roughly a 15 percent chance. The difference between those positions is often a single game in the standings.

Moreover, the seeding influences draft lottery odds for teams that miss the playoffs. For teams like the Jazz and Rockets who are still building, a play-in appearance could cost them a lottery pick, adding another layer of strategic tension. But for the franchises with championship aspirations—like the Lakers and Warriors—every game is a battle to avoid the 9th or 10th spot.

What the Standings Show

As of March 12, 2025, the official NBA standings on NBA.com list the following order in the West (seeds 6–11):

• Phoenix Suns: 36–25
• Sacramento Kings: 35–26
• Dallas Mavericks: 34–28
• Los Angeles Lakers: 33–29
• Golden State Warriors: 32–30
• Houston Rockets: 30–30

The Suns have a 1.5-game lead over the Kings for the final direct playoff spot, while the Kings themselves are only a game ahead of the Mavericks for the 7th seed. The Lakers and Warriors are within striking distance—just 2.5 games separate the 7th seed from the 10th. That’s a tighter cluster than any other conference in the league.

Source: NBA official standings and injury report as of March 12, 2025.

Injury Impact

Injuries are the single biggest variable in this race. The Lakers have dealt with LeBron James’s ankle issue all season, but he has missed only 10 games. Anthony Davis has been relatively healthy, but the Lakers’ depth is thin. If either misses time down the stretch, the Lakers could slip to 10th or out.

The Warriors are the most fragile. Draymond Green’s calf strain has kept him out for three games, and he is listed as doubtful for the next two. Without Green, Golden State’s defense drops from 12th in defensive rating to near the bottom. The Warriors also have the oldest roster in the league, and Stephen Curry has been carrying a heavy load—he leads the NBA in minutes per game among players over 35.

The Mavericks’ Luka Dončić has been playing through a nagging ankle sprain, and while he hasn’t missed many games, his efficiency has dipped. Over the past two weeks, his true shooting percentage is down 5 points from his season average. Dallas relies on him more than any team in the league; his absence for even a game or two could be catastrophic.

The Kings, meanwhile, lost Kevin Huerter for the season with a shoulder injury. Huerter was their third-leading scorer and a key spacer. The Kings have gone 2–3 since his injury, and their offense has dropped to 18th in offensive rating in that stretch.

The Suns have Bradley Beal listed as questionable with a hamstring issue, but he has played in 48 of 61 games this season. When he is on the court, Phoenix’s starting lineup has a net rating of +8.1. Without him, that drops to +2.3.

Competing Readings

Not everyone agrees that the standings are settled. The Mavericks have the easiest remaining schedule among the play-in group, according to Tankathon, with games against the Trail Blazers, Jazz, and Spurs. The Lakers have the hardest, with four games against the top three seeds (Nuggets, Thunder, Timberwolves). The Warriors have a middling schedule but face the Celtics and Bucks on a three-game road trip.

Some analysts argue that the Warriors’ experience in playoff-like games gives them an edge, even if they finish 10th. The Warriors have been to the playoffs in 10 of the last 12 seasons and have three championships in that span. But the current roster is not the same as the 2022 title team. The defense is below average, and the bench scoring is 28th in the league.

Others point to the Kings as the team most likely to secure the 7th seed. They have the best home record in the group (22–11 at home) and a relatively easy remaining schedule, with 12 of their final 21 games at home. However, the loss of Huerter could hurt their spacing in close games.

The Suns are the wild card. They have the most talent of the group, but their chemistry has been inconsistent. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have played well together, but the role players around them have struggled. Phoenix’s net rating in the fourth quarter is just 20th in the league.

What Could Change Next

The next two weeks will be decisive. The Lakers and Warriors play each other twice in the next 10 days. Those games are effectively double-elimination matchups for the 9th and 10th seeds. If the Warriors lose both, they could fall to 11th, opening the door for the Rockets.

The Rockets, despite being 11th, are only 2.5 games out of 10th. They have the second-youngest roster in the league and have been playing better defense—ranked 10th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. If they go on a run, they could push the Warriors out of the play-in entirely.

The Mavericks’ schedule is a key factor. If Luka Dončić stays healthy, Dallas could win four of their next five games and climb to 7th. But if his ankle swells up, the Mavericks could slip to 10th.

What Remains Unclear

The biggest unknown is how the league’s new player participation policy will affect load management. The NBA has cracked down on teams resting stars, but the rule applies only to nationally televised games and to players who are not injured. For teams like the Lakers and Warriors, who have older stars, the policy could force them to play LeBron and Curry in games they might otherwise rest. That could help the standings but increase injury risk.

Another uncertainty is the trade buyout market. The deadline passed, but waived players can still sign with teams. The Lakers added Spencer Dinwiddie, and the Warriors added Chris Paul (via trade, not buyout), but no major impact players are available now. The rosters are essentially set.

Finally, the play-in tournament itself is a single-elimination format. Even if a team finishes 7th, they could lose both play-in games and miss the playoffs. The format rewards consistency over a single game, but the margins are razor-thin.

The next few weeks will sort out which teams are serious and which are just hanging on. For now, the Western Conference play-in race is wide open, and every game carries weight.